Scouting Tre Mann
In the latest edition of 'P.I. Pulse,' Pro Insight's Aneesh Namburi conducts a deep dive analysis on Florida guard and projected first round pick, Tre Mann:
Tre Mann is a shifty scoring guard who led Florida to the NCAA Tournament despite a tumultuous season. Mann needs to refine his playmaking and defense, but the shotmaking and space creation that he provides at his size are some of the most valuable skills in today's NBA. Below is an in-depth scouting report that covers every aspect of his game and how it translates to the NBA, where his strengths lie in addition to potential areas of improvement.
Measurables
Date of Birth 2/3/2001
Height 6'5"
Weight 190 lbs.
Wingspan 6'5"
Injury History
Concussion - November 2019
Potential Roles/Outcomes
High: Low to mid-level guard creator. Versatile shooter both self-created and off the ball. High-level shot maker off the bounce. Improves strength/length/burst to generate paint touches, opens up lane to become average finisher and passable secondary playmaker. Puts time in to become passable team defender who uses quick hands to generate some plays. Most likely an adequate off-ball guard defender (offensive load factored in), makes enough physical improvements to be able to switch onto some lead guards, smaller wings, help necessary otherwise.
Median: Low-usage scorer. Streaky scorer who can get points in bunches when hot. Versatile shooter both self-created and off the ball, high-level shot maker off the bounce. Improves strength/length/burst to generate paint touches, but still below-average finisher. Shows passing/playmaking/decision making flashes, but lack of consistency prevents starter usage. Poor team defender, largely disinterested and a step behind on rotations. Quick hands generate some plays. Most likely an off-ball guard defender, adds enough physically to switch onto lead guards, smaller wings. Susceptible to being targeted in playoffs.
Low: 5th guard or late rotation candidate. Streaky scorer but lack of consistency/ancillary tools dissuade regular minutes. Versatile shooter both self-created and off the ball. Lack of strength, length, and burst limits him at the rim, playmaking remains very inconsistent, which takes him out as an efficient rotation candidate. Poor team defender, largely disinterested and a step behind on rotations. Needs to be hidden on defense.
Frame/Athleticism
Mann is a below-average athlete by NBA standards, but one that doesn’t rely on his physical gifts for the best parts of his game. However, his weaknesses will help boost some of the areas that could make him a more well-rounded player. Mann doesn’t have traditional north-south burst, but possesses high-level horizontal burst. When combined with his hip flexibility and handle, it exacerbates his space creation. While Mann seems to have vertical pop in the open floor, it hasn't seemed to fully translate into the half-court. Not only is he lacking strength to take on contact, but he requires a longer load time, forcing him to high difficulty adjustment finishes and shy away from contact more often than comfortable. Mann’s frame doesn’t seem conducive to bulking a ton, but there is significant room for improvement to accept contact better, specifically in the core and shoulder/chest. Mann's level of hip flexibility is encouraging at this stage. His ability to switch directions so fluidly and quickly with the ball portends to the defensive end well if/when the effort comes around.
At best even wingspan
Sub-optimal burst but doesn’t hurt him too much functionally; generates advantages with handle + shift
Not a quick twitch athlete but able to utilize pace/change in speed with the ball well
Impressive vertical in the open court; hasn’t translated functionally, doesn’t get off the ground quickly (feels like he can make significant improvements with time in the weight room)
Thin frame + subpar core strength; struggles with balance on certain dribble moves
Fluid mover laterally when engaged; plus-hip flexibility as well, changes directions very fluidly
Offense
Mann is a high-upside offensive prospect, one with flaws but someone well worth the risk due to his potential blend of shot creation and playmaking. Mann’s game starts with his handle and pull-up shooting. He possesses elite shiftiness, and when paired with his complicated array of dribble moves, he generates space to shoot a diverse collection of jumpers on a split second’s notice, whether it be from iso or PnR situations. He leverages this threat to get paint touches despite a lack of traditional burst. Mann’s next step includes becoming more consistent as a playmaker and finisher. He misses easy reads semi-consistently but also makes high-level passes with a similar regularity, making it a tough assessment of how much an NBA player development staff can fix his court reading and decision making. Currently, Mann’s lack of burst and strength make him a below-average finisher once he gets to the hoop, allowing defenses to run an over coverage PoA and their big in drop. Adding a more consistent floater and building muscle in his core and upper body will give him a better chance against opposing bigs, thus forcing help defenses to collapse on him and bigs to come up higher in the PnR, opening up passing lanes exponentially. Mann’s off-ball value is inconsistent, but he possesses an extremely quick release with little load time. If not operating with the ball, Mann will have to make a conscious effort to provide off-ball value, as he most likely will never be a James Harden-level creator to where he can take plays off.
Finishing
57/113 within restricted area this season; below average finisher around the hoop
Able to pull off wide range of adjustment finishes; tendency to avoid/maneuver contact
Floater can alleviate some finishing concerns (high percentage shot for him in college but looks flat, at times)
Shooting
1.072 PPP on 139 jumpshots in HC (53.6% eFG)
Significantly more fluid mechanics off the bounce vs. off the catch
Can shoot from NBA range w/ little exertion; realistic to extend range even deeper w/ additional lower body use
Excellent mechanics, specifically off the dribble
Lightning quick release off the catch; might attribute low(er) numbers comparatively to lack of volume this season
Handle
Low center of gravity and great hip flexibility; stays balanced while shifting weight (and able explode laterally); really fun to watch and extremely effective
Doesn’t really utilize change of pace, acceleration + deceleration; would be beneficial in tandem w/ handle and expands space creation
Space creation generated from shifting opponent weight, getting them off balance
Majority of turnovers seem to be self-created, based around attempting difficult combo moves
On-Ball (Pick-and-Roll, Isolation)
0.97 PPP on 166 PnR possessions, 57.3% eFG; plus-efficiency on high volume suggests translation to operating primary actions early in career (opens floor, allowing for more space to utilize shift)
Can take teams out of drop/switch schemes due to ability to use screen + shift to generate space, as well as PU3 + in-between game (0.93 PPP on 40 runners, 46.5% eFG); length and lack of consistent advanced playmaking could make him susceptible to pressure coverages
Playmaking from PnR is an area of improvement (needs to improve on reading the floor and hitting initial openings) but 1) creates passing windows for himself 2) shown semi-consistent ability to make advanced reads/manipulation
Can really toy w/ bigs in iso situations; needs to add burst + mid-range shot-making to get shots against guards and wings (0.788 PPP on 52 possessions, 42.9% eFG)
Off-Ball (Catch-and-Shoot, Transition, Movement Shooting, Cutting)
1.065 PPP on 31 C&S possessions in HC (53.2% eFG)
0.895 PPP on 57 spot-up possessions (47.0% eFG)
Solid transition player; doesn’t possess crazy athletic tools but looks for open lanes/teammates + plays fast; 1.033 PPP on 60 transition possessions (57.5% eFG)
Has the hip flexibility + quick release to shoot off movement, just used on-ball a ton in HS/AAU/Florida so will most likely need reps to gain comfort
Hasn’t shown much as a cutter (partially due to aforementioned on-ball volume) yet to see if it presents itself in the NBA; 1.556 PPP on 9 possessions (75.0% EFG)
Passing/Decision Making
Inconsistent as a playmaker, but tons of positive signs; gives himself passing windows
Improved significantly as a positive impact player in a team construct, was somewhat of a concern in prep
Not a very natural playmaker on secondary actions, more wired to score here
Might have tried to skip steps in this developmental arc, misses easy reads semi-consistently but also makes high-level passes with a similar regularity; really difficult tracking a consistent pattern (would think NBA staffs help him in this area but how much?)
Slightly jumper-happy (especially looking at the half-court numbers); on the surface has the excuse of his frame but the way he attacks the hoop + tries to initiate contact he should be getting to the hoop more often
Defense
Mann is unlikely to wind up a plus-defender in the NBA, and his overall defensive ceiling will depend on his offensive load. Playing as the lead guy with E1T1, in high school at The Villages, and this year with Florida, Mann has yet to master defensive fundamentals. Combine that with a slender frame without much burst, strength, or length, and it is easy to see why Mann was a poor defender for Florida this season. On the positive side, Mann has pretty quick hands and moves with fluidity, so there’s room for some off-ball value as a playmaker. Overall, Mann struggles with positioning and making timely rotations, largely due to effort. His value off-ball will primarily come making plays through his many gambles. On ball, he has trouble getting through screens at the PoA due to a lack of strength and consistent fight, despite having good hip flexibility. Currently too skinny to switch or guard multiple positions, but there is some potential flexibility with added strength due to his 6-foot-5 frame. One would hope he starts to give real effort at least on the ball, but teams are mostly likely going to want Mann to defend off the ball, if not hide him.
On-Ball (Isolation, Pick-and-Roll, Post Defense)
Primarily projects as an off-ball defender, but has shown flashes when engaged; had a few encouraging sequences against Trendon Watford
Not as liable to be picked on due to growth spurt (can defend more off-ball wings) but still rather skinny with poor WS, worried that he gets picked on late in games
Rather inactive/lackadaisical with Florida
Tendency to die at the screen, inability (or lack of willingness) to get through the contact does not help
Will need to add strength + live reps to become passable defending iso + PnR situations
Post D held up well for the most part at Florida, not overly confident that carries over to the NBA
Off-Ball and Team Defense
Impact likely muted from the jump due to lack of length
Understands positioning, when to help/stunt/dig etc, but lots of ball watching (is it due to offensive load? + lack of accountability)
Physical tools are definitely there to be help and recover quickly (and be semi-impactful)
Maybe a team communication issue, but seems to get caught hard on plenty of off-ball screens
Gambles a lot defensively but his quick hands create a decent amount of deflections/loose balls
Low steal/block rate, but partially attribute that to inactivity (especially with the steal rate)
Other (Rim Protection, Rebounding, Switchability)
Most likely a low-impact rim protector, not enough of a physical deterrent + lacking consistent awareness
Positive rebounder for position, utilizes size to initiate transition opportunities
Off-ball defender, has a bit of switching juice onto wings/forwards/bigs due to height but will need help pretty quickly due to lack of physical tools
Summary
In a class with so few “high floor” prospects once you get out of the top tiers, Mann presents special modern skills and realistic upside in corresponding traits that could round him out to a high-impact offensive creator. There aren't too many prospects that possess the shotmaking upside and playmaking potential that Mann presents. He will need reps with the ball to round out his offensive game, and defensive accountability from his coaching staff from the jump. Once Mann gets to the NBA, starting as a low-usage scorer (to ease playmaking responsibilities) will allow him to utilize his best strengths in the PnR. As he gets more comfortable with the pro game, Mann will need to show consistency as a playmaker to warrant long term creator status.
Furthermore, developing a consistent off-ball (shooting off-the-catch, moving without the ball) repertoire is imperative to make him more scalable in clutch/playoff settings. Mann’s defense will likely always be an issue due to a lack of fundamentals and underwhelming physical tools, but it is not an impossible task to get him to be a passable team defender who can create some loose balls due to his quick hands and competitive on ball with his size and improved strength/physicality instead of someone that needs to be hidden.
Mann falls into one of my favorite categories of prospects: high-level recruits that were late bloomers who struggled initially in school but came back to school and made a serious leap in their sophomore year. He always possessed special skills that are valuable in the current NBA iteration, but Mann’s physical improvements have made them more apparent. Since he’s projected as a post-lottery first round pick, it seems likely that he will go to a good team. Giving him G-League time should be beneficial. As a rookie trying to improve athletically, starting out in the G-League to work on his playmaking reads and should be invaluable to reaching his higher-end outcomes as a solid guard creator who has special shot making skills with utility off-ball. There aren't are too many prospects from 11-23 that contain the same kind of confidence as the likes of Desmond Bane and Malachi Flynn last year, but as a mid-to-late first round flier, Mann offers about as high of an upside as anyone else in this range.
